What is the pitching market going to look like this offseason?

  With how long the MLB season is, I really don’t like thinking about free agency until it’s summer at the earliest. Mini free agency will take place in July and August, which I think could be more exciting than this year’s winter offseason honestly. However, one select group is already gripping my interest levels. While pitching is going to be plentiful, I think the contracts could be really weird. 

    To me, I view starting pitching like having a quarterback. We’ve seen time and time again in the NFL that you can have all the talent in the world at the skill positions, but if you don’t have a mistake- free guy under center, you aren’t going to go very far. Comparatively, you usually need a guy on your playoff roster in baseball who you're sure can give you multiple quality starts in the postseason. Relief innings from your bullpen is probably more important, but one doesn’t work without the other. It is imperative you have an arm that can go far in the first game to ensure the bullpen is fresh for the next few games. 

    From what I count, there are 16 teams at this point in the season who I categorize as having an ace. Some have two stars from the way I see things. Even more exciting is that four more teams have one such player returning from injury in the middle of 2024. However, injury is just one of those things that comes with pitchers, and star throwers are not immune to it. It seems to be for a variety of reasons, but no matter what is causing this epidemic, I just can’t abstain from thinking about how it will affect this winter’s transactions. Because this epidemic has not just affected veterans like Gerrit Cole or Sonny Gray. It also has seen youngsters like Spencer Strider and Brayan Bello get sidelined.

  So just for today, let’s look at guys aged thirty or younger who are set to get their first big pay days. Pitchers like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes are both all-stars, and have very inconsequential injury history at the major league level. Neither rely heavily on high velocity, fastball pitching and should be targeted by just about every team with enough money. But what about this? Could fellow stud free agents who qualify for unrestricted free agency but also have career altering injuries they deal with like Walker Buehler or Shane Bieber scare GM’s into not betting on a star pitcher who you need to throw a lot of pitches?  While this might be a stretch, I just wonder if relatively healthy players will be looked at differently by front offices with the rise of pitcher injuries. 

   So what is the solution to all this? The Mets disaster of paying $200 million for two starters seems to have served as a lesson for most of the league, but that was a no-brainer as Max Scherzer was 38 and Justin Verlander was 39. The Pirates seem to be onto something as they have locked up their righty Mitch Keller on a five year deal when he was 27. It’s a medium sized contract that doesn’t lock up Pittsburgh into anything for too long, but also shows Keller the Pirates are invested in him. The Red Sox are another team thinking proactively, but that doesn’t come without hiccups. They locked up their 24 year old phenom Brayan Bello on a six year, team friendly deal that seemed awesome at the time. While Bello will be fine soon, he currently is on the IL with a tight back. 

    The Royals are one organization that could be a model for other teams long term pitching plans. Instead of signing one really good pitcher they went out this past winter and signed multiple veterans to just booster their rotation all around. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have both proven to be viable starters for a moneyball- esque operation. Another interesting move was signing an injured Kyle Wright while his value was at its lowest, stashing him away in case their other pitching options don’t pan out. 

   However, this should not be considered a perfect outcome for everyone. Star pitchers should be able to receive paydays too, despite what is going on at the position. While I hate to think negatively, I think we may be entering a time where unless you are a generational talent like a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a Zach Wheeler, you might be looked at as a short- term investment.